For twenty years Vladimir Putin has waged an unceasing war against the West. Thus, at present Russia is making threats against European states, attacking European infrastructure, cyber networks, and conducting incessant political warfare against all European governments.
Putin’s most recent escalations are an overt tactical nuclear exercise and a unilateral effort to alter the borders of the Baltic Sea. So, despite the usual rumors that Putin wants a cease-fire in place that allows him to retain those parts of Ukraine that he has seized, his behavior belies those claims.
Instead, he has transformed its war against Ukraine into a general war against the West if not a global war. And in so doing he has broken or at least threatened conventional deterrence in Europe as well as nuclear deterrence. Thus, this war has become a multi-domain forever war for Russia.
- First, this means the regular and consistent supply of the weapons Ukraine needs. This means air, air defense, and offensive strike capabilities.
- Second, the West should allow Kyiv to use those weapons to strike Russian targets. In particular, Ukraine should focus on making the Russian occupation of Crimea untenable. This would have the added benefits of bolstering Ukraine’s economy and reducing Russian threats to other Black Sea littoral states.
- Third, the ongoing rebuilding of NATO defense capabilities must continue and accelerate to overcome current bottlenecks and enhance conventional deterrence in Europe. For example, NATO is now mulling over a drone-based defense of Europe. While this is admirable; it is necessary to supplement those drones with robust and capable ground, air, and naval forces. In other words, both European governments and Washington will have to increase defense spending over several years.
- Fourth, Washington must privately and publicly make clear that Russian nuclear use will entail catastrophic consequences for Russia. This has been done but this particular policy will need to be frequently reiterated and reinforced to remain credible over time. Fifth, NATO must collectively resist and restore the maritime boundaries of the Baltic to show it will not tolerate more such efforts. And in the Black Sea, NATO should become more creative in its collaboration with Bulgaria and Romania to counter Russia’s ongoing threats.
Sixth the West must now openly support a Ukrainian victory, i.e., restoration of its territorial integrity and sovereignty. Undoubtedly this will enrage Vladimir Putin, but his behavior has shown that neither Ukraine nor Europe is secure unless Ukraine is a member of NATO. We must understand that no concept of European security is compatible with a revived Russian empire no matter who rules Russia. This should be obvious from Russian policy and rhetoric since 2022. Consequently, at the upcoming NATO summit, Ukraine should become a full member.
This is admittedly a program for victory because it should be clear that in this overall European war there really is no substitute for victory if we want to bring real peace to Europe. Russia is waging war across Europe through espionage, cyber-attacks, strikes at infrastructure, and openly subversive movements. Isn’t it time, therefore, that we and not Russia seized the initiative?
Stephen J. Blank, Ph.D., is a Senior Fellow at FPRI’s Eurasia Program. He has published over 1500 articles and monographs on Soviet/Russian, U.S., Asian, and European military and foreign policies.
Source: realcleardefense.com
