{"id":598,"date":"2024-11-11T17:45:04","date_gmt":"2024-11-11T17:45:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/?p=598"},"modified":"2024-11-11T18:17:15","modified_gmt":"2024-11-11T18:17:15","slug":"what-a-donald-trump-victory-could-mean-for-the-u-s-military","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/?p=598","title":{"rendered":"What the Donald Trump Victory Could Mean for the U.S. Military"},"content":{"rendered":"

by\u00a0Mackenzie Eaglen<\/strong><\/p>\n

A second Trump administration aims to reshape defense spending and priorities to address strategic gaps. Key proposals include optimizing forces for efficiency, bolstering recruitment and retention, reversing the Navy’s decline, retiring costly Air Force legacy aircraft, investing in high-volume munitions production, and reallocating Fourth Estate funds.<\/p>\n

As part of a Reagan Institute Strategy Group (RISG)\u00a0discussion<\/a>\u00a0I joined this summer, some key priorities emerged about what the future holds for defense budgets and policy come January 2025. The new team coming in believes defense budget allocations are out of alignment with warfighting priorities.<\/p>\n

\n
Former Trump Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy spelled out possible defense related items atop the inbox of the next Pentagon team in his panel and paper<\/a>. They include:<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Reduce demands on the force<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The\u00a0U.S. military<\/a>\u00a0is\u00a0not sized for its expansive mission<\/a>s under the\u00a0National Defense Strategy<\/a>. The armed forces continue to deter adversaries across three theaters, defend the homeland, and thwart non-state actors and terrorist threats. Yet the military has\u00a0drastically shrunk<\/a>\u00a0in capacity and capability in recent decades.<\/p>\n

As platforms age and the active force shrinks, everything and everyone has to work harder to meet the same mission set that only seems to ever grow. McCarthy\u00a0highlights the Army<\/a>\u00a0as the poster child for this problem, \u201cDespite providing, by one estimate, up to 60 percent of combatant command requirements, the Army base budget in real terms has declined by more than 25 percent over the past four years. Demand has surged recently\u2026 with no slackening on the horizon.\u201d<\/p>\n

One solution is \u201cright-sizing\u201d the combatant commands to\u00a0better balance supply and demand<\/a>\u00a0for forces. This may align with efforts underway by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General CQ Brown to have commanders\u00a0consider risk globally<\/a>\u00a0and the possibility of no additional capability in every crisis.<\/p>\n

Bolster military recruiting, retention and accessions<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Consecutive years of declining recruiting numbers have been plaguing the services. While\u00a0renewed initiatives<\/a>\u00a0have shown promise in reversing this trend, much work remains to be done to see a lasting improvement. As the air bubble of missed targets and empty billets starts moving through the proverbial garden hose of the enlisted force, there may be strain ahead for retention. Restoring confidence in national service and attracting and motivating the next generation of servicemembers will require sustained leadership from the top.<\/p>\n

Reverse the Navy\u2019s decline and the shipbuilding \u201cdoom loop\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Shipbuilding is one of the few areas of the defense budget that has seen real and large increases in spending over the past decade. The 2025 shipbuilding request stood at\u00a0$32.4 billion<\/a>\u2014over twice as large as the\u00a02015 request<\/a>\u00a0of $12.4 billion. Yet, the\u00a0FY15 budget request<\/a>\u00a0called for the construction of 8 new ships, and the\u00a0FY25 request<\/a>\u00a0would build just 9 of comparable classes.<\/p>\n

The Navy remains locked in a shipbuilding \u201cdoom loop\u201d where retirements have\u00a0consistently outpaced construction<\/a>\u00a0of new hulls, shrinking the fleet. Sec. McCarthy highlights aside from scrubbing this area of the budget for inefficacies, without massive new funding to continue to reverse the backlog, tradeoffs will need to be made about the Navy\u2019s \u201c\u2026modernization plans and aspirations.\u201d\u00a0Innovative contracting ideas<\/a>\u00a0will be required, alongside consideration for\u00a0a special fund<\/a>\u00a0outside the regular Navy and Air Force budgets for triad modernization.<\/p>\n

Retire legacy systems, particularly Air Force aircraft<\/strong><\/h2>\n

As the Air Force struggles with balancing nuclear and conventional modernization in the \u201cTerrible \u201820\u2019s\u201d and sees continue program delays, Sec. McCarthy and others are\u00a0advocates for<\/a>\u00a0accelerating the retirement of costly legacy aircraft.<\/p>\n

While this idea has merit, it will important for the next administration to ensure that these cuts are followed by real increases to procurement funding for new programs like the\u00a0Collaborative Combat Aircraft<\/a>\u00a0to ensure that these programs are accelerated and acquired at scale to replace the\u00a0capabilities retired<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

There is also a debate to be had about repurposing select legacy systems to give them a new lease on life\u2014like the Navy\u2019s recent modification of the AIM-174B missile thereby extending the Super Hornet\u2019s reach and operational viability through\u00a0new warfighting roles<\/a>\u00a0and greater target sets. Not everything should head to the boneyard because it is old if there is nothing new in the pipeline ready to be built now in large quantities.<\/p>\n

Invest more across the board in munitions<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The vulnerability of the munitions industrial base and rosy war planning assumptions on expenditure rates have been exposed by valiant\u00a0U.S. military<\/a>\u00a0efforts to supports allies in two grinding, violent\u00a0wars of attrition<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Munitions have historically served as a\u00a0billpayer<\/a>\u00a0for other Pentagon priorities\u2014eroding the industrial base and creating inadequate stockpiles. McCarthy\u00a0calls for the return<\/a>\u00a0of \u201chigh-rate, mass-scale munitions production\u2014last seen during the 1980s.\u201d This will help\u00a0stem a 30-year decline<\/a>, identify additional new entrants for missile production, and expand\u00a0multi-year<\/a>\u00a0buys even after current wars end to\u00a0rebuild stocks<\/a>\u00a0and restore select surge capacity.<\/p>\n

Scrubbing the Pentagon\u2019s so-called \u201cFourth Estate\u201d and reallocating funds<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The Defense Department\u2019s \u201cFourth Estate\u201d\u00a0pot of funds<\/a>\u00a0is for a range of defense agencies and organizations outside of the traditional services, with roles and responsibilities spanning special operations and intelligence collection to sensitive research and missile defense.\u00a0Sec. McCarthy suggested ten to 15% of this $140 billion budget \u201ccould be reallocated to the services to better man, train, and equip the Joint Force.\u201d<\/p>\n

The so-called \u201cNight Court\u201d model used by Esper and McCarthy when running the Army will be applied across the Pentagon budget for a scrub beyond simply weapons systems and re-validation of everything on which funds are expended.<\/p>\n

Nonpartisan Reality Remains the Military Requires More Investment<\/strong><\/h2>\n

While President Trump\u2019s first term did see\u00a0a defense increase<\/a>\u00a0over previous projections\u2014$225 billion during his four years in office\u2014many of the issues above must still be addressed. The military readiness and other potholes were so deep left by the Budget Control Act era that Trump\u2019s\u00a0desired military rebuild<\/a>\u00a0was stymied by the need for immediate repairs.<\/p>\n

President Reagan pledged a military buildup during his tenure, and he accomplished it. Over 8 years, Reagan grew the\u00a0Navy<\/a>,\u00a0Air Force<\/a>, and the U.S.\u00a0Army<\/a>. This buildup was accompanied by real increases to defense with a\u00a0skeptical Congress<\/a>\u2014encompassing\u00a0both parties<\/a>. The result was a Pentagon topline increase of over\u00a030 percent<\/a>\u00a0and a defense spending peak at almost 6 percent of gross domestic product.<\/p>\n

Today, the nation can afford much more but spends less at just 3 percent; the lowest since the Cold War drawdown. If President Trump is seeking to repair\u00a0and<\/em>\u00a0rebuild the military, budgetary growth above inflation will be required for his entire second term. While there are savings to be had and efficacies to be found throughout the bureaucracy, the force\u00a0needs more resources<\/a>\u00a0to avoid strategic insolvency.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by\u00a0Mackenzie Eaglen A second Trump administration aims to reshape defense spending and priorities to address strategic gaps. Key proposals include optimizing forces for efficiency, bolstering recruitment and retention, reversing the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":631,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[94,38],"class_list":["post-598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-opinions","tag-defense","tag-trump"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/TRUMP-ARMY.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=598"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":652,"href":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598\/revisions\/652"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}