{"id":529,"date":"2024-11-09T12:45:01","date_gmt":"2024-11-09T12:45:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/?p=529"},"modified":"2024-11-09T12:45:01","modified_gmt":"2024-11-09T12:45:01","slug":"a-second-trump-administration-wont-be-automatic-disaster-for-ukraine-nato-analysts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedefencenews.com\/?p=529","title":{"rendered":"A second Trump administration won\u2019t be \u2018automatic disaster\u2019 for Ukraine, NATO: Analysts"},"content":{"rendered":"

By \u00a0\u00a0Ashley Roqu<\/strong><\/p>\n

WASHINGTON \u2014 A shakeup to US and European relations is assured under a second Donald Trump administration, but several analysts say that does not necessarily spell doom for American support for Ukraine or Washington\u2019s future in NATO.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s essential for us to stop [Russian President\u00a0Vladimir]\u00a0Putin in Ukraine, and what Trump means for that is still unclear,\u201d John Herbst, former ambassador to Ukraine\u00a0and senior director of the Atlantic Council\u2019s Eurasia Center, said today in a briefing with other Atlantic Council experts.<\/p>\n

Herbst said Trump\u2019s public praise for Putin and calls to end the war quickly could be balanced out by some of the voices in the president\u2019s inner circle, like Trump\u2019s former CIA Director Mike Pompeo and former National Security Advisor Robert O\u2019Brien. Both of whom would likely push back on any plan to cut support for Kyiv.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t know how Trump\u2019s going to move, if he listens to the advice of the naives and begins to put into place a ceasefire\/peace negotiation, which favors Russia, he will be called out by many people, including Republicans, for being a \u2018patsy\u2019 for Putin,\u201d Herbst said, adding that Trump spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday just after clinching the election.<\/p>\n

Herbst said the potential for criticism from Trump\u2019s own party \u201cwill have an impact, because one thing [Trump] does not want to be is taken for weak men and giving Ukraine to Putin or facilitating Putin\u2019s control of Ukraine, which will lead only to worse things for the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Both Matthew Kroenig, vice president for the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, and Atlantic Council senior fellow Rachel Rizzo concurred with Herbst\u2019s take, noting that they expect Trump to attempt to strike some sort of negotiated settlement right out of the gate.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cHe\u2019ll want to start his presidency looking like a leader on the world stage rather than handing Ukraine to Russia, and in turn, looking like a capitulator,\u201d Rizzo said. \u201cAnd what that means for Ukraine, I think, we\u2019ll have to wait and see but I\u2019m not as convinced \u2026 that his presidency spells an automatic disaster for our Ukrainian partners.\u201d<\/p>\n

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NATO In The Balance<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Trump\u2019s return to the White House will not just mean a potential push for a negotiated settlement between Moscow and Kyiv or a change in US weapons flows to Ukraine. World leaders are also preparing for what his second term will mean for NATO after he has spent years questioning the alliance\u2019s value and publicly bashing countries not meeting the 2 percent GDP defense spending goal.<\/p>\n

In the intervening years since his first White House tour and with a war on European soil, more countries are now\u00a0hitting that target, and there are discussions on bumping that spending figure up towards the 3-percent range.<\/p>\n

With nine out of 32 countries still shy of that threshold, Rizzo speculated that the incoming administration could view NATO though as more of a series of bilateral security agreements based on defense spending, or if the nation\u2019s leader holds a similar word view to Trump.<\/p>\n